Climate Change Contribution to the Emergence or Re-Emergence of Parasitic Diseases.

The connection between our environment and parasitic diseases may not always be straightforward, but it exists nonetheless. This article highlights how climate as a component of our environment, or more specifically climate change, has the capability to drive parasitic disease incidence and prevalence worldwide. There are both direct and indirect implications of climate change on the scope and distribution of parasitic organisms and their associated vectors and host species. We aim to encompass a large body of literature to demonstrate how a changing climate will perpetuate, or perhaps exacerbate, public health issues and economic stagnation due to parasitic diseases. The diseases examined include those caused by ingested protozoa and soil helminths, malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, babesiosis, schistosomiasis, and echinococcus, as well as parasites affecting livestock. It is our goal to impress on the scientific community the magnitude a changing climate can have on public health in relation to parasitic disease burden. Once impending climate changes are now upon us, and as we see these events unfold, it is critical to create management plans that will protect the health and quality of life of the people living in the communities that will be significantly affected

A Non-Stationary Relationship between Global Climate Phenomena and Human Plague Incidence in Madagascar

Acknowledgments We thank the Plague and Immunology Unit at the Institut Pasteur de Madagascar for data collection and management and supporting the study. Funding The analysis of the study was supported by the Leverhulme Trust Research Leadership Award F/0025/AC: ‘‘Predicting the effects of climate change on infectious diseases of animals’’ (awarded to MB). Funding for KSK was provided by a University of Liverpool PhD studentship award and for MB by BBSRC award ISIS 1813, ‘‘Climate change and the future of plague in Madagascar.’’ The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A model to assess the efficacy of vaccines for control of liver fluke infection

Fasciola hepatica, common liver fluke, infects cattle and sheep causing disease and production losses costing approximately $3billion annually. Current control relies on drugs designed to kill the parasite. However, resistance is evident worldwide and widespread in some areas. Work towards a vaccine has identified several antigens of F. hepatica that show partial efficacy in terms of reducing worm burden and egg output. A critical question is what level of efficacy is required for such a vaccine to be useful? We have created the first mathematical model to assess the effectiveness of liver fluke vaccines under simulated field conditions. The model describes development of fluke within a group of animals and includes heterogeneity in host susceptibility, seasonal exposure to metacercariae and seasonal changes in temperature affecting metacercarial survival. Our analysis suggests that the potential vaccine candidates could reduce total fluke burden and egg output by up to 43% and 99%, respectively, on average under field conditions. It also suggests that for a vaccine to be effective, it must protect at least 90% of animals for the whole season. In conclusion, novel, partial, vaccines could contribute substantially towards fasciolosis control, reducing usage of anthelmintics and thus delaying the spread of anthelmintic resistance

Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion

Ability of a dynamical climate sensitive disease model to reproduce historical Rift Valley Fever outbreaks over Africa

AbstractRift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis transmitted by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, and is considered a priority pathogen by the WHO. RVF epidemics mostly occur in Africa and can decimate livestock herds, causing significant economic losses and posing health risks for humans. RVF transmission is associated with the occurrence of El Niño events that cause floods in eastern Africa and favour the emergence of mosquitoes in wetlands. Different risk models have been developed to forecast RVF transmission risk but very few studies have validated models at pan-African scale. This study aims to validate the skill of the Liverpool Rift Valley Fever model (LRVF) in reproducing RVF epidemics over Africa and to explore the relationship between simulated climatic suitability for RVF transmission and large-scale climate modes of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Our results show that the LRVF model correctly simulates RVF transmission hotspots and reproduces large epidemics that affected African countries. LRVF was able to correctly reproduce major RVF epidemics in Somalia, Kenya, Zambia and to a lesser extent for Mauritania and Senegal. The positive phases of ENSO and DMI are associated with an increased risk of RVF over the Horn of Africa, with important time lags. Following research activities should focus on the development of predictive modelling systems at different time scales.</jats:p